Texas vs Arkansas Preview: Longhorns' Season Hangs in the Balance

Five days after suffering one of the most demoralizing losses in recent Texas football history—a 35-10 beatdown at the hands of Georgia—the Longhorns face a critical crossroads. On November 22, 2025, Arkansas comes to Austin for a game that could define Texas’s entire season. Win, and the playoff dream stays alive. Lose, and the season unravels into catastrophe.

The Stakes: Everything

Let’s be direct: This is a must-win game for Texas. After falling from #10 to #17 in the AP Poll, the Longhorns’ margin for error has vanished. A loss to Arkansas would drop Texas to 7-4 with only the Texas A&M rivalry game remaining—effectively ending any legitimate playoff hopes.

Current Playoff Scenario

Texas’s Path to 9-3:

Beat Arkansas (Nov 22)
Beat Texas A&M (season finale)
Hope other teams lose and committee rewards 9-3 record

If Texas Loses to Arkansas:

Best possible record: 8-4
Playoff probability: Less than 5%
Season assessment: Complete disappointment

The Math: Texas currently sits at #17 in the AP Poll. A 9-3 finish might move them back into the #10-12 range—barely on the playoff bubble. An 8-4 finish likely excludes them entirely, barring complete chaos across the rest of college football.

Knowing the Opponent: Arkansas Razorbacks

Season Overview

Record: Approximately 5-5 or 6-4 (rebuilding season) Notable Wins: [Mid-tier SEC opponents] Notable Losses: Loss to Texas A&M 45-42 (Oct 18)

Arkansas enters this game as a clear underdog but with nothing to lose. The Razorbacks are fighting for bowl eligibility and would love nothing more than to play spoiler against a wounded Texas team.

Arkansas’s Offensive Identity

Offensive Strengths:

Physical rushing attack designed to control time of possession
Play-action passing game off established run threat
Capable of scoring in bunches when defense breaks down

Offensive Weaknesses:

Inconsistent quarterback play
Limited explosiveness against elite defenses
Tendency to stall in the red zone

Key Offensive Players to Watch:

Quarterback: Will look to attack Texas’s vulnerable secondary
Running Back: Arkansas’s bell-cow back will test Texas’s run defense
Offensive Line: Can they create push against Texas’s defensive front?

Arkansas’s Defensive Scheme

Defensive Strengths:

Physical secondary willing to play press-man coverage
Experienced linebackers capable in run and pass defense
Aggressive fourth-down defense

Defensive Weaknesses:

Susceptible to explosive passing plays
Can be worn down by physical running games
Vulnerable to tempo offense

Defensive Philosophy: Arkansas will likely employ a bend-but-don’t-break approach, attempting to force Texas into long, sustained drives where mistakes are more likely.

Texas’s Keys to Victory

For Texas to bounce back and secure this crucial win, they must execute in several critical areas:

1. Establish the Run Game Early

Why It Matters: After Georgia’s defensive line dominated the trenches, Texas must re-establish physical dominance. Running the ball effectively will:

Slow down Arkansas’s pass rush
Create play-action opportunities
Control the clock and limit Arkansas possessions
Build confidence in the offensive line

How to Execute:

Commit to 30+ rushing attempts
Run behind left tackle where Texas has advantage
Use motion and shifts to create favorable run blocking angles
Don’t abandon the run even if early carries are ineffective

2. Protect Arch Manning

Why It Matters: Manning was sacked four times by Georgia and looked rattled throughout. Against Arkansas, the offensive line must give him clean pockets to operate.

How to Execute:

Chip releases from tight ends and running backs
Quick-game passing concepts that get ball out fast
Designed rollouts to move Manning off his spot
Maximum protection on obvious passing downs

3. Generate Defensive Pressure with Four-Man Rush

Why It Matters: Texas can’t afford to send extra rushers and get burned by Arkansas’s play-action. Generating pressure with the front four keeps linebackers in coverage.

How to Execute:

Defensive line stunts and twists to create confusion
Win on the edge with speed rushers
Interior push to force quarterback off spot
Consistent gap discipline to prevent scramble yards

4. Win the Turnover Battle

Why It Matters: Texas is -2 in turnovers in the last two games. Reversing that trend is critical for playoff positioning.

How to Execute:

Ball security drills all week for running backs
Arch Manning must avoid forcing throws
Defensive backs need to make plays on contested balls
Special teams coverage excellence

5. Control Emotion and Tempo

Why It Matters: This game follows a demoralizing loss. Texas must avoid emotional letdown or overcompensation.

How to Execute:

Fast start to establish dominance
Even-keeled sideline demeanor
Trust in game plan rather than forcing plays
Avoid penalties from frustration

Arch Manning’s Bounce-Back Opportunity

This game represents a critical moment in Manning’s development. After the Georgia disaster, how he responds will tell us everything about his mental toughness.

What Manning Must Do

Mental Approach:

Short memory on Georgia performance
Trust in protection and teammates
Accept that not every play will be perfect
Take what the defense gives rather than forcing

Physical Execution:

Quick decision-making (less than 2.5 seconds to throw)
Accuracy on short-to-intermediate throws
Touch on deep balls when Arkansas secondary cheats up
Mobility to extend plays when protection breaks down

Statistical Goals:

250+ passing yards
2+ touchdowns
Zero interceptions
65%+ completion percentage

If Manning can deliver these numbers, Texas should win comfortably and rebuild confidence heading into the Texas A&M rivalry game.

Steve Sarkisian’s Coaching Spotlight

Head Coach Steve Sarkisian’s ability to rally his team after a devastating loss will be tested. His preparation and game planning this week are absolutely critical.

Sarkisian’s Challenges

Psychological Management:

Keep team focused on Arkansas, not replaying Georgia loss
Maintain belief in playoff potential
Prevent defensive mentality or fear of mistakes

Tactical Adjustments:

Simplify offense to rebuild Arch Manning’s confidence
Design plays that maximize Texas’s athletic advantages
Create early opportunities for explosive plays to build momentum

Personnel Decisions:

Whether to make changes on offensive line after Georgia disaster
Rotation plans to keep defense fresh
Special teams adjustments if needed

Game Prediction and Analysis

Projected Game Flow

First Quarter: Texas comes out aggressive, looking to establish run game and build early lead. Arkansas stays conservative, feeling out Texas’s emotional state.

Second Quarter: Texas pulls away with superior talent, building double-digit lead by halftime. Arkansas makes adjustments but struggles to match Texas’s athleticism.

Second Half: Texas maintains control, doesn’t allow Arkansas back in the game. Arkansas fights but ultimately lacks firepower to threaten.

Final Score Prediction

Texas 31, Arkansas 17

Why Texas Wins

Talent Advantage: Texas simply has better players at nearly every position. At home, with everything on the line, that talent gap will be decisive.

Motivation: After the Georgia humiliation, Texas is motivated to prove they’re still a playoff-caliber team. Arkansas, while competitive, doesn’t have the same urgency.

Home Field Advantage: Playing at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium with 100,000+ fans will energize Texas and create a hostile environment for Arkansas.

Coaching: Steve Sarkisian is one of college football’s best offensive minds. Against Arkansas’s defense, he should scheme multiple easy scores.

Why Arkansas Could Win

Texas’s Fragile Confidence: If Texas starts slow or makes early mistakes, their confidence could shatter. Arkansas could exploit that psychological vulnerability.

Turnover Luck: A few fortunate bounces or big plays could allow Arkansas to stay in the game and create upset potential.

Texas Overlooking Them: If Texas is already thinking ahead to Texas A&M, Arkansas could catch them unprepared.

Betting and Spread Analysis

Expected Line: Texas favored by 17-21 points

Recommendation: Texas should cover the spread. The talent gap is too significant, and Texas has too much at stake to not dominate.

Over/Under: Likely around 54-56 points. Expect the over if both offenses execute.

Injury Report and Availability

Texas:

Offensive line health after Georgia game critical
Arch Manning appears healthy despite taking hits
No major injury concerns reported

Arkansas:

Monitor quarterback status through the week
Offensive line health important for run game
Secondary depth tested all season

Final Thoughts: Season Defining Moment

This game will reveal everything about the 2025 Texas Longhorns. Are they a resilient playoff team that can bounce back from adversity? Or are they a flawed squad that wilts under pressure?

For Arch Manning, it’s a chance to show he’s more than a highly-recruited name—he’s a championship-caliber quarterback.

For Steve Sarkisian, it’s a test of his ability to manage his team through the toughest moments.

For Texas fans, it’s a referendum on whether this season can still be salvaged.

The answer comes on November 22. Everything is on the line.

Game Details:

Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Kickoff: TBA
TV: TBA
Line: Texas -17 to -21
Over/Under: 54-56

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