CFP Rankings Analysis (Dec 2): Texas on the Bubble at #13, Oklahoma Secure at #8

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee released its final rankings before Selection Sunday, and the picture is becoming clearer—and more stressful for Texas fans.

The Top 12 (December 2 Rankings)

1. Ohio State (12-0) - Big Ten Championship bound
2. Indiana (12-0) - Big Ten Championship bound
3. Georgia (11-1) - SEC Championship bound
4. Texas Tech (11-1) - Big 12 Championship bound
5. Oregon (11-1)
6. Ole Miss (11-1)
7. Texas A&M (11-1) - Dropped from #3 after loss to Texas
8. Oklahoma (10-2) - Rises after beating Alabama and LSU
9. Alabama (10-2) - SEC Championship bound
10. Notre Dame (10-2)
11. BYU (11-1)
12. Miami (10-2)

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First Team Out: 13. Texas (9-3)

Texas Analysis: The Unlucky #13

Despite a massive road win over #3 Texas A&M, the Longhorns find themselves one spot out of the projected field.

Why #13? The committee values the 10-win mark significantly. While Texas has arguably the best win of the weekend (at Kyle Field), their three losses (Georgia, Florida, and a non-conference stumble) are weighing them down compared to 10-2 Miami and Notre Dame.

Path to the Playoff: Texas needs chaos on Championship Saturday.

• Scenario A: A blowout loss for Alabama in the SEC Championship could drop the Tide below Texas (though unlikely given Bama’s H2H resume).
• Scenario B: An upset in the ACC Championship (Miami losing) or Big 12 Championship could open a spot.
• Scenario C: The committee re-evaluates the “eye test” on Sunday morning, valuing the A&M win more than Miami’s resume.

Oklahoma Analysis: Hosting a Playoff Game?

What a turnaround for the Sooners. After the Red River loss, many wrote them off. But wins over Alabama and LSU to close the season have vaulted them to #8.

Projected Matchup: As the #8 seed, Oklahoma would host the #9 seed (currently Alabama) in Norman.

• Rematch Alert: This would be a rematch of their November 22nd classic, which OU won 23-21.
• Home Field: Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium would host its first-ever playoff game.

The SEC Picture

The SEC continues to cannibalize itself but remains the dominant force.

• In: Georgia, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss.
• Bubble: Texas.

If Texas gets in, the SEC could send a record 6 teams to the 12-team playoff.

What to Watch This Weekend

• SEC Championship: Georgia vs. Alabama (Dec 6)
• Big Ten Championship: Ohio State vs. Indiana
• ACC Championship: Miami vs. SMU
• Big 12 Championship: Texas Tech vs. BYU

Selection Sunday is December 7th. Buckle up.